Friday, September 7, 2012

NFL Week One - Best Value on FanDuel

I have become a big fan of the Daily Fantasy sports websites and have really took a liking to FanDuel.  I want to run a weekly blog post on the best value plays at each position each week and thought I would start by diving into week one of the NFL season.  I will give the best 3-5 value plays at each position and see how this plays out in Week 1 of the NFL season.  I will try to give one top play, one medium play and one value play at each position. 

Some strategies that I like to hold to on FanDuel are to look for QB's with running ability that can give you bonus points as throwing TD's are only worth 4 points.  Also like to take stud RB's that I know have good matchups and can get me TD's.  RB's are the guys that are going to touch the ball 20+ times a game and have the chance at getting 0.5 points per catch so I want to invest a lot of money here with some studs.  WR's are the ones that are always tough to predict, I like taking lower end guys with strong matchups and hope for the best.  At TE I love the idea of taking either Graham or Gronk each week as they are on great offensive teams and they get the ball a ton.  They are expensive but with only one TE position you have lock it up.  Kickers are tough I usually take ones that are playing indoors and have long legs to kick long FG's.  Defense I like to look for the ball hawking teams that give you a chance to get extra points for TD's.

Michael Vick $8700 - Prime matchup against a lowly Browns team that are starting something like 15 rookies.  Also love having a running QB where I can have opportunities at the 6 point rushing TD's and those extra points for rushing yardage.

Robert Griffin III $7100 - Same as Vick with the rushing ability, but a bit of a gamble with it being his first game, but lucky enough it comes against a softer New Orleans defense where he should be able to move the ball well and if playing from behind be able to put up some garbage points.

Russell Wilson $5400 - So much value here for such a cheap price, you have to take advantage of this price as FanDuel put out the salaries early before they knew he was the starting QB.  I think he can be a top 10 QB this week and love his running ability as well.

Matt Forte $8000 - Matt Forte has been the Bears entire offense for the past few seasons, I think they let him do his thing to start out the season against the lowly Colts.  PPR RB stud also which is nice with the 0.5 PPR.

Doug Martin $6500 - Very nice value here with the PPR and the fact that Martin could be the Bucs workhorse back in a similar vein as Ray Rice. 

Kevin Smith $5000 - The Lions are playing the Rams and are a heavy favorite.  Yeah it is nice to think it will be all Stafford and Calvin but once they get their lead look for them to try to run the clock out and control the game.

Brandon Lloyd $6100 - He is kind of hidden and has been off the radar in the preseason.  Although still hyped up owners might be hesitant to start him this week.  The guy catches everything thrown his way and I expect Brady to look his way 6-10 times in week one.

Torrey Smith $5800 - As much as I love Rice I think the Ravens are planning on a more balanced attack and throwing the ball is going to be a bigger part at what they do in 2012.  Smith looked great last year as a rookie and I expect him to turn into that Mike Wallace type of player and start to control games.

Nate Washington $5300 - How do you not start him at this price and with this matchup?  Britt is not playing and as much as I like the rookie Wright he still needs to groom.  Patriots may build a lead and Locker will be looking for his favorite target all game.  2 TD's for Washington is not out of the question.

Brandon Pettigrew $5700 - He is the second best target in Detroit's high flying offense.  Easily will catch 5 passes for 50 yds and a shot at a TD, everything more then that is gravy.

Greg Olsen $5000 - Newton needs someone to count on in the crunch and Olsen is on the verge of going to that next level.  Not many receiving targets after Steve Smith in this offense.  Olsen is also a great Red Zone target so at least one TD is very likely.

Kyle Rudolph $4900 - Huge target for Ponder to find, and entering year 2 for both players the chemistry is building and with a lowly Jacksonville opponent it could be a recipe for success.

Mason Crosby $5400 - Going to be hard for Rodgers to get into the endzone against the Niners defense.  I think the Packers move the ball well and get a couple TD's but also think they have to settle for 3 FG's.

Robbie Gould $5100 - Can kick with the best of them and has a nice matchup where the Bears will be moving the ball all over the field.

Josh Scobee $5000 - After MJD he is the best player on this team.  Guy can hit the long FG at a high percentage and playing indoors in Minny he should have enough opportunities to bang a few home.

Philadelphia Eagles $5400 - Have you seen this D-Line yet this offseason?  Sacks, Turnovers and more sacks and turnovers is what I predict all day against a rookie QB and rookie filled team.  It is going to be ugly.

Detroit Lions $5100 - They might build such a big lead in this game that their defense will be put in a great place to make some nice ball hawking plays.

Seattle Seahawks $5000 - A great defense and one that is underrated, and they get to play the Cardinals who have been flip flopping all offseason on what crappy QB to start.  There are going to be opportunities for big plays from the defense and then add Leon Washington's ability as a Return man.  Nice value here.

1 comment:

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