Friday, September 28, 2012

NFL Week Four - Best Values on FanDuel

I have become a big fan of the Daily Fantasy sports websites and have really took a liking to FanDuel. I want to run a weekly blog post on the best value plays at each position each week and thought I would start by diving into week one of the NFL season. I will give the best 3-5 value plays at each position and see how this plays out in Week 1 of the NFL season. I will try to give one top play, one medium play and one value play at each position.

Some strategies that I like to hold to on FanDuel are to look for QB's with running ability that can give you bonus points as throwing TD's are only worth 4 points. Also like to take stud RB's that I know have good matchups and can get me TD's. RB's are the guys that are going to touch the ball 20+ times a game and have the chance at getting 0.5 points per catch so I want to invest a lot of money here with some studs. WR's are the ones that are always tough to predict, I like taking lower end guys with strong matchups and hope for the best. At TE I love the idea of taking either Graham or Gronk each week as they are on great offensive teams and they get the ball a ton. They are expensive but with only one TE position you have lock it up. Kickers are tough I usually take ones that are playing indoors and have long legs to kick long FG's. Defense I like to look for the ball hawking teams that give you a chance to get extra points for TD's.



QB
Aaron Rodgers $9400 - The price tag is huge but he has had 3 straight tough defensive matchups and in week 4 he gets the Saints AWFUL defense.  This could very easily be a 4 TD type of game for Rodgers.

Peyton Manning $8300 - This is another dream matchup for a struggling QB to cure his worries.  The Raiders secondary is not great and Manning now has 3 games under his belt to shake of the rust.  Game 4 could be a 300+ yard 3 TD type of return to glory.

Josh Freeman $6700 - Ok here is my third QB and if you don't see a trend yet you may be blind.  Freeman comes with a cheaper price tag then the first two choices and has just a nice matchup against the awful Redskins secondary.

RB
LeSean McCoy $8100 - Primetime game against the hated division rivals the NY Giants.  Also the Eagles lost a tough game last week and will have to dig deep and get the ball back to their best offensive weapon. 

Jamaal Charles $7800 - He is back and in a huge way, ride the wave while he is still reasonably priced.  Also Hillis is likely out this week and Charles will see a lot of work.

Doug Martin $6500 - I am torn on this one as I am playing the TB passing game over the running game but at this price still great value.

Alfred Morris $6300 - The Redskins love this guy and continue to feed him the ball. I think the trend continues and he rumbles his way to a TD this weekend.

Mikel LeShoure $6000 - He is cheap and is the new guy in town.  Has a tougher matchup then some though as he plays against an underrated Vikings run defense.

Ryan Williams $5400 - Looked really good last week against a tough Run defense, and now he gets Miami at home.  VALUE!

WR
Calvin Johnson $8500 - Best WR in the game and that includes fantasy football as well.  They will force feed him the ball if they have to.

AJ Green $7600 - Dalton is always looking for Green and in his second year he has already sustained the title of top 5 NFL WR title.  5-8 catch game and 100 yards is his floor.

Demaryius Thomas $6300 - He will be in all my lineups this week.  See above with Peyton Manning.

Vincent Jackson $6300 - Jackson is always a funny guy to play in Fantasy football.  One week he will burn you if you play him and the next if he is on your bench he will go off and burn you that way as well.  Good value here but also comes with more risk then you would think.

Ramses Barden $5400 - Nicks is now doubtful to play, Barden will take his spot and get those targets.

Jerome Simpson $4500 - He is back after suspension, and the Vikings are already moving the ball well, can only imagine what they can do now with a legit WR2.


TE
Rob Gronkowski $7600 - He is the highest valued TE this week but he also has the nicest matchup against the Bills who are known for letting the TE slip under the radar.  My feeling here is not a lot of other owners will spend the money at TE this week and settle for lower valued options.

Tony Gonzalez $6000 - probably the all around best value at any position this week at FanDuel

Kyle Rudolph $5800 - Huge target for Ponder to find, and entering year 2 for both players the chemistry is building and his stock is clearly on the rise.  Rudolph the Redzone Reindeer is a must play once again this week.

Brent Celek $5400 - One of the most underrated TE's in all of football.  The guy will do whatever it takes to catch a football and is surprisingly one of the best after the catch. 



PK
David Akers $5200 - Can always count on at least 2-3 FG's a game from him.

Dan Bailey $5200 - Tough Bears defense and playing at home.  Dallas can move the ball well but maybe not get in the endzone so a 3-4 FG game is not out of the question.  Also nice to have a player in the MNF game.

Shayne Graham $5000 - Texans have potential to build a big lead and then be happy to kick FG's the whole second half.

DEF
Arizona Cardinals $5200 - The defense is literally on fire right now and shows no signs of slowing down, and they are lucky this week to be at home once again and get a rookie QB.  Sorry Tannehill it isn't going to be pretty.

Houston Texans $5000 - Seems like FD missed on their price tag here.  Probably also means everyone is playing the Texans defense this week and why not.

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