Tuesday, August 14, 2012

RB - Best Values at Current ADP

The Running Back position seems more limited then usual and to fill a roster with RB's heading into 2012 seems to have to take a lot more skill then in the past.  The old NFL used to have work horse RB's that would get 20 carries a game for 16 games a year.  In the year 2012 this is not the case, teams are dealing more with injuries, and going at a running back by committee approach.  On top of that the NFL has been shifting to a passing league where QB's are breaking records each year.  The TE position has also shifting with teams looking to adapt the New England game plan of running 2 TE sets and limiting the blocking for RB's.

I wanted to break down some values later on at the RB position, I used FFToolBox for my ADP rankings as it is up to date (They use MFL's ADP).  I want to focus on RB's that would be taken at the ADP of round 6 and beyond and break down what I thought was the best values at their current ADP. 

Jonathan Stewart - ADP 69.1 (6th Round) - Yes I understand they have Williams, Tolbert and Newton all who are going to play a factor on the ground game, but Stewart is the back they believe in and the one that will get the majority of the carries on a team that is looking to utilize the ground game even more. 

C.J. Spiller - ADP 71.3 (6th Round) - Freddie Jackson is the real deal and is going to get the majority of the carries (Or is he?).  Spiller showed he can be a number one RB when Jackson went down last year, and has potential to be a Fantasy star.  Well worth a shot at this ADP.

Mark Ingram - ADP 85.8 (8th Round) - As training camp and preseason continues I suspect Ingram's value to increase if he can avoid the injury bug.  If healthy the Saints will then have the option to use the ground and pound game to go along with Brees passing clinic.  Sproles doesn't hurt Ingram's value as he is more of a Receiver then a RB.

Peyton Hillis - ADP 92.6 (8th Round) - Kansas City is going back to the Thomas Jones/Charles combo that helped them control games and win games.  Hillis is going to get plenty of carries and out play his ADP by a mile.  He is currently already on the rise and is going around round 6 or so.

Donald Brown - ADP 94.9 (8th Round) - With such a young team looking to rebound they are going to have to rely on a ground game, and basically Brown is the best thing that they have and will also be a nice pass catching RB out of the backfield to help bail out Luck.

LeGarrette Blount - ADP 126.8 (11th Round) - Doug Martin is getting all the buzz in Tampa Bay, and rightfully so.  Having two RB's doesn't seem out of the question especially with Martin being a rookie and the Bucs will look to ease him into the lineup and schemes.  I can see both backs splitting carries for the majority of the year.  Blount has more of the ground and pound ability and might be looked at to help seal games.

Jacquizz Rodgers - ADP 133.1 (11th Round) - Rodgers is an 8th/9th round pick for me I want him on any team I can get him and truely think Turner is done after this year.  I think Turner is actually done after 4 or 5 weeks and Rodgers takes over as the #1 back in Atlanta.

Kevin Smith - ADP 142.0  (12th Round) - Smith is on the rise and going as early as Round 7-8 now, as people are viewing him as the RB to own in Detroit.  If he falls into rounds 10/11 you have to seriously considering scooping him up.

Daniel Thomas - ADP 142.9 (12th Round) - Can Reggie Bush stay healthy for a whole year and be the RB that gets the majority of the carries?  He could be I see them getting Thomas into the mix more and establishing a solid ground game.  Worth a shot as your RB4/5.

Shane Vereen - ADP 152.6 (13th Round) - New England is a land mind for Running Backs but still they will use the hot hand especially icing game late.  If Vereen gets a legit shot in any one game he could surprise and demand playing time.  I am willing to take him around round 11 and take that chance.

Rashad Jennings - ADP 160.4 (14th Round) - MJD is there and had a monster year last year and is the back to own in Jacksonville but Jennings can be a valuable player this year and take off some of that wear and tare that MJD might encounter.  I expect about 6-10 touches a game for Jennings and could earn more once he shows what he can do with them.

Other Notables:
Evan Royster ADP 171.8 - Easily on the rise and being drafting in the 10th round, great opportunity
Robert Turbin ADP 176.5 - I view him as a baby Lynch (without the van and DUI)
Cedric Benson ADP 180.0 - He will move up current ADP as he is battling for the starting RB gig
Bernard Scott No ADP - Great last pick in a FF draft, can we really trust BJGE?
Jonathan Dwyer No ADP - I like picking Dwyer as my last pick as well, I think he battles Redmen.

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